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February’s AIA Architecture Billings Index “suggests that the recent slowdown may be receding”

On One’s Toes

February’s AIA Architecture Billings Index “suggests that the recent slowdown may be receding”

(Bence Balla-Schottner/Unsplash)

The last several months have seen a worrisome decline in the Architecture Billings Index, the economic indicator published monthly by the AIA. For February the score was 49.5, the highest in several months, any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. The increase from January’s rather low 46.2 is promising and according to the AIA “suggests that the recent slowdown may be receding.” This comes just a month after the AIA said we were in the midst of the “lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010.”

In a statement the AIA’s chief economist Kermit Baker attributed the uptick in billings to an easing of inflation and the potential for lower interest rates. He also noted the robust index for new project inquiries, 56.0; this is up from 53.8 reported in January.

“There are indicators this month that business conditions at firms may finally begin to pick up in the coming months. Inquiries into new projects grew at their fastest pace since November, and the value of newly signed design contracts increased at their fastest pace since last summer,” Baker said. “Given the moderation of inflation for construction costs and prospects for lower interest rates in the coming months, there are positive signs for future growth.”

Each month the report lays out the billings growth by region. Once again, the Midwest has reported the most growth as the only region across the country with an index hovering just above 50. In February the Midwest reported a score of 50.8, a minuscule drop from January’s 50.9.

All other regions in the country reported scores under 50, with the lowest again coming from the Northeast, 44.0.

In the sector breakdown, month after month, firms focusing on institutional projects have continuously reported the strongest billings. In February, the institutional score finally inched over 50 to 50.7, a notable increase from last month’s 48.5. In a change from previous months, which saw mixed practices report the lowest billings, the sector with the lowest score in February was multifamily residential, 44.9.

Indeed, after several grim months, February’s report appears promising. Today, the Federal Reserve is meeting on interest rates and economists predict they will remain steady.

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